CyI Lecture: Probabilistic model evaluation and ensemble dispersion modeling

Dates: 
15 December, 2009 - 18:00
Speaker(s): 
Dr Stefano Galmarini, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Italy
Venue: 
The Cyprus Institute, Guy Ourisson Building, Athalassa Campus (Higher Technical Institute - HTI, grounds)
Abstract

The recently established Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) aims at promoting the exchange of experiences on model evaluation between the European and the North American regional scale air quality communities.
The initiative works around four identified practices that aim at a purpose-oriented model evaluation. Part of the talk will be dedicated to the presentation of this new initiative and the various approaches explored as well as detailing the first activity organized and scheduled for the beginning of next year. Among the four practices the one that still requires a good deal of research, is the so called /Probabilistic Evaluation/ which refers to the assessment of our confidence in the model prediction and determination of model uncertainty. One of the techniques used in this respect is the so-called /ensemble modeling/ which proved to be useful for many types of model simulation regardless of the scale of application or the case study. The seminar will be the occasion to review the last 10 years of application of this technique in atmospheric dispersion and air quality models with a critical perspective to the aspects that are still missing and would require attention by the research community.

For more information contact Eroulla Cadd tel. 22208600 or email e [dot] cadd [at] cyi [dot] ac [dot] cy