VEClim Calls for Enhanced Monitoring and Preventive Measures Across Europe
The rapid expansion of the Asian tiger mosquito and its potential to spread infectious diseases necessitate urgent action across Europe. The Early Warning Decision Support platform
VEClim, of the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center of the Cyprus Institute, has released new assessments emphasizing the growing risk of dengue, chikungunya, and other mosquito-borne infections becoming widespread in Europe. VEClim highlights the urgent need for intensive vector surveillance and preventive measures to protect public health in the coming months.
Zika, chikungunya, and dengue fever are spread by the Aedes albopictus mosquito, commonly known as the Asian tiger mosquito because of its origin and distinctive white-on-black stripes. This highly invasive species arrived in Europe in the 1970s and, boosted by climate change, has since spread across the continent rendering new areas permissive to disease outbreaks and posing a significant public health risk.
VEClim supports Early Warning Systems by using climate-sensitive mosquito activity and outbreak risk models. In its most recent update, VEClim released a series of assessments on its web portal,
veclim.com, indicating that most of Europe is prone to the establishment of the tiger mosquito and predicting frequent yet relatively small outbreaks of dengue and possibly other arboviral diseases. VEClim’s confidence about its predictions is supported by the match between high-risk areas and the 275 locally acquired dengue fever cases reported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) between 2010 and 2023
[1].
The map depicts the likelihood of an imported case resulting in an outbreak in Europe from 2010 to 2020. Circles: regions of the observed dengue outbreaks between 2010 and 2023.
VEClim predicts a global expansion of at-risk areas this year compared to the past decade. Regions of particular concern include North America's and Brazil’s eastern coasts, the Indian Ocean islands, India, China, and the Malay Archipelago. In Europe, heightened risks are identified along the environmental suitability limit, spanning from the Netherlands to Türkiye and extending towards the Levantine and Mesopotamian regions.
As the tiger mosquito becomes more widespread in Europe, the risk of outbreaks from arboviruses such as dengue imported from outside the continent increases. With the 2024 Paris Olympics approaching and the region preparing to host millions of international visitors, authorities in France and across the continent must remain vigilant against ongoing global epidemics, imported cases, and potential local transmission. VEClim has identified major cities of high risk, including Athens, Barcelona, Bucharest, Istanbul, Madrid, Milan, Naples, Paris, and Rome as well as other cities in the Levantine and north Africa.
VEClim’s predictions of average number of infections upon disease importation per day from June to September 2024.
VEClim’s assessments highlight the critical need for extensive and continuous vector monitoring and the surveillance of travel-related and locally acquired cases. Early warning and decision support systems like VEClim can be vital for planning effective monitoring and control measures in an environmentally sustainable manner.
An exemplary case is the prediction of the suitability of Cyprus’ climate for the tiger mosquito nearly a decade before its arrival and establishment on the island. Leading this prediction and subsequent discovery, the CyI now collaborates with the National Ministry of Health to implement effective and environmentally friendly control strategies against the invasive mosquito species on the island.
With the increasing threat of mosquito-borne diseases, it is crucial for individuals to protect themselves and their families. Simple measures, such as using insect repellent and eliminating standing water around homes, can significantly reduce mosquito bites and the risk of disease.
By staying informed about local health advisories and taking proactive steps, we can collectively safeguard our health and communities from mosquito-borne diseases.
VEClim is funded by Wellcome Trust (226065/Z/22/Z) and hosted by The Cyprus Institute.
References
[1] https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/all-topics-z/dengue/surveillance-and-disease-data/autochthonous-transmission-dengue-virus-eueea (Accessed on 15 June 2024).
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For further information please contact the Principal Investigator of VEClim: Dr Kamil Erguler (This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.), Associate Research Scientist. CARE-C, The Cyprus Institute
For more information on vectors and vector-borne diseases please contact: Dr Marco Neira (This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.), Associate Research Scientist, CARE-C, The Cyprus Institute
