The Cyprus Institute

Fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5, with a diameter less than 2.5 μm) is recognized as a significant health hazard and is considered the leading environmental health risk factor, ranking among the top two causes of mortality worldwide. Air quality in Europe has significantly improved in the past decades, but the challenges posed by an aging population and urbanization, as well as climate change, call for an assessment of the potential health impacts of future pollution trends.

An important cause of air pollution exacerbated by climate change is the occurrence of wildfires, which adds complexity to air pollution management. Natural aerosols, including biogenic emissions of particle precursors, are also affected by climate change. For example, higher temperatures directly affect plant photosynthetic activity and biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions, which are important precursors of organic aerosol particles. However, biogenic particles are less hazardous than combustion-related particles (e.g., from vegetation fires). Air pollution and climate change strongly depend on the socioeconomic pathways that the world will follow to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The scientific community has developed the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) that explicitly account for potential changes in global societal, demographic, and economic trends over the century, considering the effects of climate warming.

Hence, the effects of climate change on PM2.5 pollution and its consequent health impacts require a comprehensive approach to evaluate and address environmental and public health challenges, link them to future scenarios, and develop adaptation strategies.

Therefore, we have evaluated the future health risks associated with fine particulate matter PM2.5 pollution across Europe under various climate and socio-economic scenarios. We find that PM2.5 remains a leading environmental health risk factor, significantly contributing to chronic diseases and excess mortality despite notable improvements in European air quality in recent decades.

 

We quantified how future climate change, air pollution, and demographic developments interact to influence health outcomes in Europe. Our study combined three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)—SSP1-2.6 (sustainability), SSP2-4.5 (middle-of-the-road), and SSP5-8.5 (fossil-fuel intensive)—with climate projections from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These scenarios represent a wide range of potential futures, from strong mitigation and sustainability to high emissions and limited climate action.

Across all scenarios, PM2.5 levels in Europe are expected to decline significantly in the near term (up to 2040–2050), mainly due to ongoing and planned air pollution control policies. The largest reductions occur under the sustainability pathway (SSP1), where emissions mitigation is relatively strict.

Demographic changes, particularly population aging and urbanization, play a central role in shaping future health risks (Figure 2). Even as air quality improves, the vulnerability to pollution-related diseases increases in an aging population. By 2100, the majority of excess mortality is projected to occur in older age groups, especially those over 80 or 90 years old.

Population growth and spatial distribution also affect exposure. Urban populations are expected to expand significantly, increasing the number of people exposed to pollution in high-density areas. These trends are most pronounced under SSP5, amplifying health risks despite technological and economic development.

The findings underscore that improvements in air quality alone are insufficient to guarantee reduced health impacts. While emissions reductions are essential, demographic trends and climate-driven changes in pollution dynamics must also be considered. In this context, key policy recommendations are the following:

• Sustained emissions reductions are critical to achieving long-term health benefits.
• Integrated climate and air quality policies are necessary, as climate change can offset gains in pollution control.
• Urban planning and public health strategies must address increasing exposure in growing cities.
• Adaptation measures targeting vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly, are essential.

The study also highlights the importance of aligning with ambitious climate pathways such as SSP1, which combine strong mitigation with sustainable socio-economic development. These pathways, which especially target fossil-fuel-related emissions, offer the most effective means of reducing both pollution and associated health burdens.

 

Phasing out fossil fuels

Our results suggest that a full phase-out of fossil fuels in the EU could yield substantial health benefits. In many countries, exposure to PM2.5 could fall below the strict World Health Organization’s guideline concentration of 5 µg/m³, nearly eliminating attributable mortality, except in some southern European countries (e.g., Italy, Spain, Greece), where additional measures to reduce emissions will be needed. This provides strong support for increasing the share of clean, renewable energy, as advocated by the United Nations through the Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 and the EU’s ambition of climate neutrality for 2050, which is legally binding under the European Climate Law.